International Business Machines Corporation IBM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 62 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

International Business Machines Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $17.2B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $74.0B across the next four quarters (+7.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 5.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$74.0B
+7.1% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$2.73 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$5.12 per $1
Training Fit
18.9% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $18.01B vs the actual $17.16B — an error of 5.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

IBM Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $18.01B $17.16B $13.76B–$22.27B +6.1% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $14.76B $8.74B–$20.78B -9.6%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $21.77B $14.40B–$29.14B +10.6%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $17.98B $9.47B–$26.50B +13.0%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $19.47B $9.95B–$28.98B +13.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture International Business Machines Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9651 -3.5% -3.5% below trend 15
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0002 +0.0% In line with trend 14
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0689 +6.9% +6.9% above trend 14
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0055 +0.6% In line with trend 14

Spending and Revenue

IBM Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 62 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 4.8983x • R&D elasticity: -2.6027x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 62 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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