Texas Instruments Inc TXN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Texas Instruments Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $5.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $19.1B across the next four quarters (-1.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$19.1B
-1.6% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.24x
SG&A Elasticity
-0.81x
Training Fit
4.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $5.09B vs the actual $5.46B — an error of 6.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

TXN Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $5.09B $5.46B $4.57B–$5.67B +14.5% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $5.06B $4.35B–$5.89B +6.7%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $4.78B $3.97B–$5.76B +8.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $4.56B $3.68B–$5.66B -5.4%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $4.73B $3.71B–$6.01B -13.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Texas Instruments Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.999 -0.1% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0054 +0.5% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0238 +2.4% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9549 -4.5% -4.5% below trend 17

Spending and Revenue

TXN Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.6548x • R&D elasticity: -1.0937x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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