Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. JKHY

Revenue Intelligence Report • 40 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $644M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $2.7B across the next four quarters (+6.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$2.72B
+6.7% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.64x
SG&A Elasticity
0.89x
Training Fit
2.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $656.5M vs the actual $644.0M — an error of 1.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

JKHY Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $656.5M $644.0M $612.0M–$704.4M +6.7% ✓ In range
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-09-30		 $678.7M $628.7M–$732.7M +5.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-31		 $657.0M $607.8M–$710.1M +6.1%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $677.7M $626.6M–$732.9M +6.5%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $702.3M $649.8M–$759.1M +9.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jul–Sep) 1.0278 +2.8% In line with trend 10
FQ2 (Oct–Dec) 0.9937 -0.6% In line with trend 10
FQ3 (Jan–Mar) 0.9917 -0.8% In line with trend 10
FQ4 (Apr–Jun) 0.9907 -0.9% In line with trend 9

Spending and Revenue

JKHY Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 40 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.3722x • R&D elasticity: -0.2161x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 1.9%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 40 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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