Jabil Inc JBL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 67 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-05-31

Jabil Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $8.8B for the period ending 2026-05-31. The model projects $38.0B across the next four quarters (+13.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-05-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$38.0B
+13.1% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.42x
SG&A Elasticity
0.81x
Training Fit
5.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $8.13B vs the actual $8.75B — an error of 7.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

JBL Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-05-31		 $8.13B $8.75B $6.79B–$9.74B +3.9% ✓ In range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-08-31		 $9.89B $7.76B–$12.60B +19.9%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-11-30		 $9.45B $7.50B–$11.90B +13.8%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-02-28		 $9.10B $7.13B–$11.62B +9.9%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-05-31		 $9.54B $7.26B–$12.54B +9.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Jabil Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0497 +5.0% +5.0% above trend 17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9674 -3.3% -3.3% below trend 17
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9808 -1.9% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0221 +2.2% In line with trend 16

Spending and Revenue

JBL Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 67 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.7063x • R&D elasticity: -0.2932x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -7.1%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 67 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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