Cadence Design Systems, Inc. CDNS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 68 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Cadence Design Systems, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.5B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $6.4B across the next four quarters (+15.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$6.37B
+15.2% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.43x
Training Fit
2.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $1.46B vs the actual $1.47B — an error of 1.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Cadence Design Systems, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

CDNS Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2026
Period end 2026-03-31		 $1.46B $1.47B $1.34B–$1.58B +17.1% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.51B $1.38B–$1.64B +18.1%
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.56B $1.42B–$1.71B +16.5%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.63B $1.47B–$1.80B +13.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.68B $1.51B–$1.86B +13.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Cadence Design Systems, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0055 +0.5% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9919 -0.8% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9942 -0.6% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0108 +1.1% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

CDNS Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 68 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.0817x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -1.3%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 68 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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