What is MSI's forecasted revenue?

Motorola Solutions, Inc. is forecasted to generate $12.4B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +1.4% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the MSI revenue forecast model?

The model has 3.3% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.9B versus the actual $3.1B.

Motorola Solutions, Inc. MSI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 64 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-04

Motorola Solutions, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.1B for the period ending 2026-07-04. The model projects $12.4B across the next four quarters (+1.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 8.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-04. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$12.4B

+1.4% YoY

R&D Elasticity

2.22x

SG&A Elasticity

1.29x

Training Fit

3.3% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $2.87B vs the actual $3.13B — an error of 8.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-07-04	$2.87B	$3.13B	$2.61B–$3.16B	+3.8%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-10-04	$3.05B		$2.67B–$3.49B	+1.4%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2027-01-04	$3.46B		$2.94B–$4.08B	+2.4%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-04-04	$2.88B		$2.39B–$3.48B	+6.2%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-07-04	$3.02B		$2.44B–$3.73B	-3.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Motorola Solutions, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9913	-0.9%	In line with trend	15
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0022	+0.2%	In line with trend	14
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9989	-0.1%	In line with trend	15
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9995	-0.0%	In line with trend	15

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 64 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.0055x • R&D elasticity: 0.8273x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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