Trimble Inc. TRMB

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-03

Trimble Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $972M for the period ending 2026-07-03. The model projects $3.5B across the next four quarters (-6.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-03. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$3.54B
-6.5% YoY
R&D Elasticity
1.51x
SG&A Elasticity
0.72x
Training Fit
3.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $905.2M vs the actual $972.0M — an error of 6.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

TRMB Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-07-03		 $905.2M $972.0M $828.0M–$989.6M +3.4% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-10-03		 $875.8M $772.1M–$993.5M -2.8%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-03		 $881.7M $755.5M–$1.03B -9.1%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-04-03		 $906.3M $758.3M–$1.08B -3.6%
Q2 FY2028
Period end 2027-07-03		 $873.6M $715.7M–$1.07B -10.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Trimble Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr) 1.0231 +2.3% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (May–Jul) 1.0074 +0.7% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Aug–Oct) 0.9964 -0.4% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Nov–Jan) 0.9894 -1.1% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

TRMB Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.2297x • R&D elasticity: 0.05x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 69 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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