Microchip Technology Incorporated MCHP

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Microchip Technology Incorporated's latest quarterly revenue is $1.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $6.9B across the next four quarters (+34.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$6.89B
+34.4% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.26x
SG&A Elasticity
1.26x
Training Fit
3.0% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2027): The model predicted $1.42B vs the actual $1.48B — an error of 4.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

MCHP Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.42B $1.48B $1.32B–$1.53B +32.1% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.53B $1.38B–$1.70B +34.2%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.65B $1.45B–$1.88B +39.4%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.82B $1.57B–$2.12B +39.0%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-06-30		 $1.88B $1.59B–$2.22B +26.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Microchip Technology Incorporated's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Apr–Jun) 1.0167 +1.7% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Jul–Sep) 0.9952 -0.5% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Oct–Dec) 0.9927 -0.7% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Jan–Mar) 1.0081 +0.8% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

MCHP Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.1058x • R&D elasticity: 0.1655x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Technology

SNPS CRM JBL TTD MSI UBER GOOGL CSCO