Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO

Revenue Intelligence Report • 72 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-25

Cisco Systems, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $17.3B for the period ending 2026-07-25. The model projects $62.9B across the next four quarters (-0.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 8.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-25. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$62.9B
-0.6% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.80x
Training Fit
2.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $15.80B vs the actual $17.25B — an error of 8.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Cisco Systems, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

CSCO Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-07-25		 $15.80B $17.25B $14.96B–$16.68B +7.7% ✗ Outside range
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-10-25		 $15.81B $14.64B–$17.07B +6.2%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-25		 $15.80B $14.38B–$17.35B +2.9%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-04-25		 $15.67B $14.06B–$17.46B -1.1%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-07-25		 $15.67B $13.88B–$17.69B -9.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Cisco Systems, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Aug–Oct) 0.9863 -1.4% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Nov–Jan) 1.0027 +0.3% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Feb–Apr) 1.0217 +2.2% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (May–Jul) 1.0018 +0.2% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

CSCO Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 72 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.1953x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 72 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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