Ptc Inc. PTC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Ptc Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $600M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $3.6B across the next four quarters (+21.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 31.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$3.58B
+21.1% YoY
R&D Elasticity
1.05x
SG&A Elasticity
1.30x
Training Fit
3.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $789.1M vs the actual $600.0M — an error of 31.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($600M) came in 32% below the spending-based forecast ($789M). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

PTC Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $789.1M $600.0M $687.9M–$905.3M +22.5% ✗ Outside range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $858.9M $739.5M–$997.7M -3.9%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-31		 $877.7M $745.7M–$1.03B +28.0%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $912.2M $759.5M–$1.10B +17.8%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $928.1M $761.6M–$1.13B +54.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Ptc Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Oct–Dec) 0.9883 -1.2% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Jan–Mar) 1.0001 +0.0% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Apr–Jun) 0.9749 -2.5% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Jul–Sep) 1.0322 +3.2% +3.2% above trend 17

Spending and Revenue

PTC Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.4028x • R&D elasticity: -0.8853x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 31.5%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 69 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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