Keysight Technologies, Inc. KEYS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 31 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-31

Keysight Technologies, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.8B for the period ending 2026-07-31. The model projects $8.6B across the next four quarters (+31.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 3.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$8.64B
+31.2% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$17.52 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$2.17 per $1
Training Fit
3.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $1.78B vs the actual $1.85B — an error of 3.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

KEYS Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-07-31		 $1.78B $1.85B $1.53B–$2.08B +31.8% ✓ In range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-10-31		 $1.77B $1.45B–$2.16B +24.9%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-31		 $2.09B $1.75B–$2.50B +30.9%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-04-30		 $2.35B $1.92B–$2.88B +36.9%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-07-31		 $2.42B $1.86B–$3.15B +31.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Keysight Technologies, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Nov–Jan) 0.9778 -2.2% In line with trend 8
FQ2 (Feb–Apr) 0.9862 -1.4% In line with trend 8
FQ3 (May–Jul) 0.9916 -0.8% In line with trend 7
FQ4 (Aug–Oct) 1.0444 +4.4% +4.4% above trend 7

Spending and Revenue

KEYS Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 31 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.85x • R&D elasticity: 1.2819x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -3.4%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 31 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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