Garmin Ltd GRMN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 72 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-28

Garmin Ltd's latest quarterly revenue is $1.8B for the period ending 2026-03-28. The model projects $8.3B across the next four quarters (+11.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-28. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$8.34B
+11.7% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.47x
SG&A Elasticity
0.92x
Training Fit
5.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $1.76B vs the actual $1.75B — an error of 0.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

GRMN Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2026
Period end 2026-03-28		 $1.76B $1.75B $1.53B–$2.03B +14.6% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-28		 $2.04B $1.67B–$2.49B +12.3%
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-28		 $1.97B $1.54B–$2.52B +11.2%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-28		 $2.33B $1.76B–$3.09B +9.7%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-28		 $2.00B $1.46B–$2.75B +14.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Garmin Ltd's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9791 -2.1% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0194 +1.9% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9995 -0.1% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0019 +0.2% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

GRMN Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 72 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.0076x • R&D elasticity: -0.6371x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 72 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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