Monolithic Power Systems Inc MPWR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 65 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Monolithic Power Systems Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $981M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $3.9B across the next four quarters (+18.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 18.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$3.87B
+18.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.20x
Training Fit
4.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $803.5M vs the actual $980.6M — an error of 18.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Monolithic Power Systems Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($981M) came in 18% above the spending-based forecast ($804M). This suggests that Monolithic Power Systems Inc's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

MPWR Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $803.5M $980.6M $723.3M–$892.7M +20.9% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $900.3M $775.8M–$1.04B +22.1%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $993.2M $827.7M–$1.19B +32.2%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $998.8M $809.2M–$1.23B +24.2%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $973.8M $769.6M–$1.23B -0.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Monolithic Power Systems Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9874 -1.3% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9947 -0.5% In line with trend 15
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0318 +3.2% +3.2% above trend 15
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9683 -3.2% -3.2% below trend 15

Spending and Revenue

MPWR Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 65 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.7325x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 65 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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