Seagate Technology Holdings Plc STX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 68 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-03

Seagate Technology Holdings Plc's latest quarterly revenue is $3.6B for the period ending 2026-07-03. The model projects $11.9B across the next four quarters (-2.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 11.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-03. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$11.9B
-2.5% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$3.99 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$4.28 per $1
Training Fit
5.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $3.20B vs the actual $3.63B — an error of 11.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

STX Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-07-03		 $3.20B $3.63B $2.81B–$3.59B +30.8% ✗ Outside range
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-10-03		 $3.09B $2.54B–$3.64B +17.6%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-03		 $2.99B $2.31B–$3.67B +5.8%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-04-03		 $2.90B $2.11B–$3.68B -6.9%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-07-03		 $2.91B $2.03B–$3.79B -19.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Seagate Technology Holdings Plc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jul–Sep) 0.9931 -0.7% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (Oct–Dec) 1.0326 +3.3% +3.3% above trend 16
FQ3 (Jan–Mar) 0.9664 -3.4% -3.4% below trend 16
FQ4 (Apr–Jun) 1.0027 +0.3% In line with trend 15

Spending and Revenue

STX Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 68 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.5073x • R&D elasticity: -0.193x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 68 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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