Upwork Inc. UPWK

Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Upwork Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $192M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $776M across the next four quarters (-1.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$775.8M
-1.5% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.34x
SG&A Elasticity
0.83x
Training Fit
1.8% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $195.5M vs the actual $191.7M — an error of 2.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

UPWK Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $195.5M $191.7M $187.0M–$204.4M +0.3% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $194.0M $182.1M–$206.6M -3.8%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $194.6M $180.1M–$210.2M -1.9%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $194.2M $177.6M–$212.3M -0.7%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $193.1M $174.8M–$213.4M +0.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Upwork Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9939 -0.6% In line with trend 9
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0062 +0.6% In line with trend 8
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0012 +0.1% In line with trend 8
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9887 -1.1% In line with trend 9

Spending and Revenue

UPWK Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 36 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.146x • R&D elasticity: 0.0603x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 36 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Technology

TYL PTC GRMN AMD GEN SWKS CDNS TXN