Oracle Corporation ORCL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-31

Oracle Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $19.3B for the period ending 2026-08-31. The model projects $77.7B across the next four quarters (+8.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 9.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$77.7B
+8.2% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.39x
Training Fit
2.9% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2027): The model predicted $17.52B vs the actual $19.34B — an error of 9.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Oracle Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

ORCL Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-08-31		 $17.52B $19.34B $15.91B–$19.29B +17.4% ✗ Outside range
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-11-30		 $18.81B $17.02B–$20.79B +17.2%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-02-28		 $18.90B $16.96B–$21.07B +10.0%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-05-31		 $20.02B $17.86B–$22.45B +4.4%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-08-31		 $19.96B $17.60B–$22.63B +3.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Oracle Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jun–Aug) 0.9841 -1.6% In line with trend 18
FQ2 (Sep–Nov) 0.9832 -1.7% In line with trend 18
FQ3 (Dec–Feb) 0.9989 -0.1% In line with trend 18
FQ4 (Mar–May) 1.0398 +4.0% +4.0% above trend 18

Spending and Revenue

ORCL Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.7092x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -9.4%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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