Intel Corporation INTC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-27

Intel Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $16.1B for the period ending 2026-06-27. The model projects $69.8B across the next four quarters (+22.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 9.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-27. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$69.8B
+22.3% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-6.06 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$2.50 per $1
Training Fit
7.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $14.55B vs the actual $16.13B — an error of 9.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

INTC Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-27		 $14.55B $16.13B $10.71B–$19.77B +13.2% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-27		 $18.18B $12.77B–$25.88B +33.2%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-27		 $18.18B $12.53B–$26.38B +33.0%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-27		 $15.77B $11.07B–$22.47B +16.2%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-27		 $17.63B $12.01B–$25.87B +9.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Intel Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9525 -4.8% -4.8% below trend 18
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.987 -1.3% In line with trend 18
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0184 +1.8% In line with trend 18
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0452 +4.5% +4.5% above trend 18

Spending and Revenue

INTC Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.2498x • R&D elasticity: -1.8512x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -9.8%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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