Amphenol Corporation APH

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Amphenol Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $8.8B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $40.5B across the next four quarters (+39.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 8.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$40.5B
+39.5% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.05x
Training Fit
2.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $8.00B vs the actual $8.76B — an error of 8.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Amphenol Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

APH Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $8.00B $8.76B $7.27B–$8.80B +41.6% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $8.45B $7.62B–$9.38B +36.5%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $8.89B $7.94B–$9.95B +38.0%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $11.53B $10.00B–$13.30B +51.4%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $11.61B $9.98B–$13.50B +32.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Amphenol Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9876 -1.2% In line with trend 10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9933 -0.7% In line with trend 9
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9972 -0.3% In line with trend 9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0175 +1.8% In line with trend 9

Spending and Revenue

APH Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 38 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.3359x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -8.7%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 38 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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