Skyworks Solutions, Inc. SWKS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-03

Skyworks Solutions, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $935M for the period ending 2026-07-03. The model projects $4.5B across the next four quarters (+11.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-03. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$4.46B
+11.2% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.89x
SG&A Elasticity
-0.01x
Training Fit
6.5% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $991.0M vs the actual $934.8M — an error of 6.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

SWKS Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-07-03		 $991.0M $934.8M $839.9M–$1.17B +2.7% ✓ In range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-10-03		 $1.16B $918.2M–$1.47B +5.4%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-03		 $1.20B $901.5M–$1.60B +15.9%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-04-03		 $1.05B $755.0M–$1.46B +11.4%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-07-03		 $1.05B $725.5M–$1.52B +12.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Skyworks Solutions, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Nov–Jan) 1.0132 +1.3% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Feb–Apr) 0.9351 -6.5% -6.5% below trend 17
FQ3 (May–Jul) 1.0191 +1.9% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Aug–Oct) 0.9913 -0.9% In line with trend 16

Spending and Revenue

SWKS Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 70 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.4941x • R&D elasticity: 0.508x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 70 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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