Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 58 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-27

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $11.5B for the period ending 2026-06-27. The model projects $52.4B across the next four quarters (+26.8% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-27. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$52.4B
+26.8% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.54x
SG&A Elasticity
0.96x
Training Fit
7.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $11.74B vs the actual $11.54B — an error of 1.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

AMD Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-27		 $11.74B $11.54B $8.96B–$15.39B +52.8% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-27		 $11.95B $8.79B–$16.24B +29.3%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-27		 $12.63B $8.84B–$18.05B +23.0%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-27		 $13.10B $8.75B–$19.61B +27.8%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-27		 $14.71B $9.20B–$23.52B +27.5%
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Latest Earnings Call

Q4 2025
View full transcript → 7 sections · 8414 words

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9571 -4.3% -4.3% below trend 15
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9804 -2.0% In line with trend 14
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0439 +4.4% +4.4% above trend 14
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0512 +5.1% +5.1% above trend 14

Spending and Revenue

AMD Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 58 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.706x • R&D elasticity: -0.5221x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 1.8%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 58 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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