Axon Enterprise, Inc. AXON

Revenue Intelligence Report • 61 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $904M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $4.3B across the next four quarters (+34.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 3.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$4.32B
+34.3% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.29x
SG&A Elasticity
0.32x
Training Fit
3.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $870.3M vs the actual $904.4M — an error of 3.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

AXON Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $870.3M $904.4M $793.9M–$954.0M +30.2% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $991.5M $870.7M–$1.13B +39.5%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.11B $947.3M–$1.30B +39.4%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.05B $876.7M–$1.27B +30.5%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $1.17B $950.7M–$1.43B +29.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9871 -1.3% In line with trend 14
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9991 -0.1% In line with trend 14
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0021 +0.2% In line with trend 14
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0136 +1.4% In line with trend 14

Spending and Revenue

AXON Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 61 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.0383x • R&D elasticity: 0.1373x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 61 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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