Applovin Corporation: possible revenue paths
Latest verified revenue: $1.924B for the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Reported source.
Forecasts are conditional on the listed data cutoff. This rollout reuses the existing company datasets; it is not a fresh SEC-data refresh. Some forecast quarters may already have ended by the computation date. Read each target date before treating an estimate as a future-quarter outlook.
PyMC seasonal AR(1) quarterly log-revenue growth with Student-t shocks; posterior predictive paths include parameter uncertainty and new shocks at every horizon.
Each line is one possible future revenue path. The 80% and 95% intervals are pointwise model probabilities, not simultaneous coverage for the whole path. The median is not an expected dollar mean. 1 sampled paths extend beyond the displayed chart range; the plotted intervals use the full simulations. Open full-size chart.
| Quarter ending | Predictive median | 80% predictive interval | 95% predictive interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | $2.185B | $2.044B–$2.329B | $1.915B–$2.462B |
| 2026-12-31 | $2.580B | $2.306B–$2.828B | $2.081B–$3.039B |
| 2027-03-31 | $2.916B | $2.502B–$3.288B | $2.162B–$3.628B |
| 2027-06-30 | $3.100B | $2.573B–$3.587B | $2.153B–$4.024B |
Future period-end dates are approximate: month-end issuers retain month-end dates; weekly issuers advance by 13 weeks. Future 53-week adjustments are not known.
Historical forecast checks
Historical forecast coverage is not available for this vintage. Sampling convergence alone does not establish forecast accuracy.
Up to four historical cutoffs spaced four quarters apart, with at least 16 training quarters; full four-quarter outcomes required. Fixed specification, no winner selection.
These are retrospective checks using latest-restated data, not forecasts archived before their outcomes. Results from DDOG or another company are not transferred to this company.
Sampling diagnostics and limitations
Maximum R-hat 1.004 · minimum bulk ESS 1493 · minimum tail ESS 900 · divergent transitions 0. The required sampling checks passed. These diagnose computation, not predictive calibration.
Fixed priors
mu is long-run quarterly log growth; phi is growth persistence; sigma is the shock scale; season gives quarterly effects; shock_df controls tail thickness.
| Parameter | Prior / fixed assumption |
|---|---|
| mu | Normal(0,0.10) |
| phi | Normal(0,0.5) truncated to [-0.98,0.98] |
| sigma | HalfNormal(0.10) |
| season | 4 Normal(0,0.15), centered to sum zero |
| shock_df | 5 |
Future regime changes and uncertainty over alternative model structures remain outside these intervals. The model should be scored on subsequent releases, and its forecast vintage preserved.
- Revenue-history baseline; does not identify customer-level discounts, acquisitions or future structural breaks.
- Intervals are pointwise, conditional on this model and priors, not guaranteed coverage or simultaneous path bounds.
- Latest-restated historical data; retrospective tests are not archived real-time forecasts. Small test samples cannot validate nominal coverage.
- Student-t log shocks can make dollar means undefined; point forecasts are medians.
- Input source dates are shown separately from generation date; this rollout is not a fresh SEC download.
Management guidance versus reported revenue
Reviewed all 8 archived filings in the latest-eight candidate sample. This is an incomplete earliest-located sample; earlier announcements and call-only guidance may be missing. Annual, segment-only and constant-currency growth outlooks are excluded. The Apps business was sold June 30, 2025 and subsequently classified as discontinued operations. Only post-disposal consolidated continuing-revenue guidance is compared with the restated continuing-business actuals; pre-disposal total-company and Advertising-segment ranges are excluded.
Management ranges are stated targets, not probability intervals. The revenue model is fitted independently; verified guidance is superimposed for comparison. Historical bias uses the earliest located guidance for each quarter: (guidance midpoint − actual revenue) / actual revenue. Positive values mean guidance above actual results; negative values mean guidance below actual results. This describes outcomes, not management intent.
4 matched quarters · mean guidance bias -3.47% · mean absolute error 3.64%. Actual revenue fell inside 25.0% of 4 published ranges.
This is a descriptive sample, not evidence of a permanent management bias or a calibrated probability range. Call-only guidance and earlier revisions may be missing; guidance and results can reflect different business assumptions.
Guidance vintages and actual results
| Issued / filed | Target quarter | Management guidance | Actual revenue | Bias | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-06 | 2025-09-30 | $1.320B–$1.340B | $1.405B | -5.34% | Company release |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-12-31 | $1.570B–$1.600B | $1.658B | -4.40% | Company release |
| 2026-02-11 | 2026-03-31 | $1.745B–$1.775B | $1.842B | -4.47% | Company release |
| 2026-05-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1.915B–$1.945B | $1.924B | +0.33% | Company release |
All located quarterly guidance announcements
Each announcement retains its original date and amounts. Later revisions remain separate; only the earliest located announcement for each target enters the bias average. An initial forecast may predate this research sample.
| Issued / filed | Target quarter | Guidance | Vintage | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-06 | 2025-09-30 | $1.320B–$1.340B | Earliest located | Company release |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-12-31 | $1.570B–$1.600B | Earliest located | Company release |
| 2026-02-11 | 2026-03-31 | $1.745B–$1.775B | Earliest located | Company release |
| 2026-05-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1.915B–$1.945B | Earliest located | Company release |
| 2026-08-05 | 2026-09-30 | $2.055B–$2.085B | Earliest located | Company release |
Preserved Bayesian forecast vintage
Computed 2026-11-04 using revenue through 2026-06-30. These original numbers are retained unchanged to allow subsequent scoring; they were not refitted with the new results. Forecasts computed after a target quarter ended are retrospective estimates, not pre-release predictions.
The prior Bayesian forecast was withheld: Only 10 consecutive positive comparable revenue quarters; at least 20 required.
The report below retains its original forecasts, validation and company-specific discussion. Those revenue estimates use a different model or information cutoff; they are separate from the Bayesian outlook above. Any EPS model below has not been recalculated using the new Bayesian revenue paths.
Applovin Corporation APP
Revenue Intelligence Report • 25 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30
Earlier summary (2026-10-14): Applovin Corporation has SEC quarterly revenue data through 2026-06-30. Current, continuous revenue and comparable expense data are insufficient for a spending-based forecast.
Quarterly Revenue History
| Quarter Ending | Revenue |
|---|---|
| 2020-03-31 | $0.3B |
| 2020-06-30 | $0.3B |
| 2020-09-30 | $0.4B |
| 2020-12-31 | $0.5B |
| 2021-03-31 | $0.6B |
| 2021-06-30 | $0.7B |
| 2021-09-30 | $0.7B |
| 2021-12-31 | $0.8B |
| 2022-03-31 | $0.6B |
| 2022-06-30 | $0.8B |
| 2022-09-30 | $0.7B |
| 2022-12-31 | $0.7B |
| 2023-03-31 | $0.7B |
| 2023-06-30 | $0.8B |
| 2023-09-30 | $0.9B |
| 2024-03-31 | $1.1B |
| 2024-06-30 | $0.7B |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.8B |
| 2024-12-31 | $1.0B |
| 2025-03-31 | $1.2B |
| 2025-06-30 | $1.3B |
| 2025-09-30 | $1.4B |
| 2025-12-31 | $1.7B |
| 2026-03-31 | $1.8B |
| 2026-06-30 | $1.9B |
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