Teradyne, Inc. TER

Revenue Intelligence Report • 25 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-28

Teradyne, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.3B for the period ending 2026-06-28. The model projects $5.9B across the next four quarters (+32.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 14.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-28. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$5.91B
+32.3% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$92.87 per $1
Training Fit
8.0% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.13B vs the actual $1.33B — an error of 14.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Teradyne, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

TER Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-28		 $1.13B $1.33B $968.5M–$1.30B +74.1% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-28		 $1.14B $906.5M–$1.38B +48.5%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-28		 $1.31B $1.02B–$1.60B +21.2%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-28		 $1.68B $1.35B–$2.02B +31.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-28		 $1.77B $1.40B–$2.14B +33.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Teradyne, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0574 +5.7% +5.7% above trend 5
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9825 -1.8% In line with trend 5
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.919 -8.1% -8.1% below trend 5
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0224 +2.2% In line with trend 5

Spending and Revenue

TER Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 25 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -1.31x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 25 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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