Epam Systems, Inc. EPAM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 62 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Epam Systems, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.4B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $6.5B across the next four quarters (+16.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$6.52B
+16.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.67x
Training Fit
2.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.52B vs the actual $1.41B — an error of 7.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Epam Systems, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

EPAM Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.52B $1.41B $1.41B–$1.64B +12.5% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.55B $1.43B–$1.69B +11.4%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.61B $1.46B–$1.77B +14.5%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.61B $1.45B–$1.79B +14.8%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $1.75B $1.55B–$1.98B +23.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Epam Systems, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9908 -0.9% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9914 -0.9% In line with trend 15
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0105 +1.1% In line with trend 15
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0008 +0.1% In line with trend 15

Spending and Revenue

EPAM Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 62 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.7904x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 7.6%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 62 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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