Netapp, Inc. NTAP

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-31

Netapp, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $2.0B for the period ending 2026-07-31. The model projects $7.0B across the next four quarters (-5.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 17.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$6.96B
-5.9% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-0.25 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$2.00 per $1
Training Fit
3.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2027): The model predicted $1.67B vs the actual $2.02B — an error of 17.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($2.0B) came in 17% above the spending-based forecast ($1.7B). This suggests that Netapp, Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

NTAP Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-07-31		 $1.67B $2.02B $1.53B–$1.82B +7.3% ✗ Outside range
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-10-31		 $1.76B $1.55B–$1.96B +2.9%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-31		 $1.68B $1.43B–$1.93B -2.1%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-04-30		 $1.83B $1.55B–$2.12B -5.9%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-07-31		 $1.69B $1.37B–$2.01B -16.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Netapp, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (May–Jul) 0.9915 -0.8% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (Aug–Oct) 1.007 +0.7% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Nov–Jan) 1.0203 +2.0% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Feb–Apr) 1.0087 +0.9% In line with trend 16

Spending and Revenue

NTAP Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.362x • R&D elasticity: -0.3263x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 69 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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