Workday, Inc. WDAY

Revenue Intelligence Report • 60 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-31

Workday, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $2.6B for the period ending 2026-07-31. The model projects $11.2B across the next four quarters (+10.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$11.2B
+10.3% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.01x
SG&A Elasticity
0.79x
Training Fit
1.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $2.61B vs the actual $2.65B — an error of 1.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

WDAY Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-07-31		 $2.61B $2.65B $2.54B–$2.68B +11.0% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-10-31		 $2.73B $2.62B–$2.83B +12.0%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-31		 $2.78B $2.65B–$2.91B +9.7%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-04-30		 $2.81B $2.66B–$2.97B +10.5%
Q2 FY2028
Period end 2027-07-31		 $2.89B $2.72B–$3.07B +9.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Workday, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr) 0.9972 -0.3% In line with trend 14
FQ2 (May–Jul) 1.0077 +0.8% In line with trend 14
FQ3 (Aug–Oct) 1.0025 +0.3% In line with trend 14
FQ4 (Nov–Jan) 0.9915 -0.8% In line with trend 14

Spending and Revenue

WDAY Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 60 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.0319x • R&D elasticity: -0.086x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 60 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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