Ebay Inc. EBAY

Revenue Intelligence Report • 50 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Ebay Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $14.1B across the next four quarters (+17.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$14.1B
+17.3% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.47x
SG&A Elasticity
0.79x
Training Fit
4.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $3.36B vs the actual $3.13B — an error of 7.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

EBAY Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $3.36B $3.13B $2.96B–$3.82B +23.2% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $3.17B $2.65B–$3.79B +12.5%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $3.36B $2.70B–$4.18B +13.4%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $3.66B $2.84B–$4.71B +18.5%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $3.89B $2.93B–$5.16B +24.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Ebay Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0043 +0.4% In line with trend 12
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9935 -0.6% In line with trend 11
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0212 +2.1% In line with trend 12
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9916 -0.8% In line with trend 12

Spending and Revenue

EBAY Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 50 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.8045x • R&D elasticity: 0.6474x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 50 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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