Adobe Inc. ADBE

Revenue Intelligence Report • 74 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-28

Adobe Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $6.8B for the period ending 2026-08-28. The model projects $29.8B across the next four quarters (+14.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-28. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$29.8B
+14.6% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$1.98 per $1
Training Fit
2.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $6.88B vs the actual $6.76B — an error of 1.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Adobe Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

ADBE Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-08-28		 $6.88B $6.76B $6.24B–$7.58B +14.8% ✓ In range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-11-28		 $7.09B $6.32B–$7.97B +14.5%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-02-28		 $7.38B $6.40B–$8.50B +15.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-05-28		 $7.46B $6.37B–$8.74B +12.7%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-08-28		 $7.83B $6.49B–$9.46B +15.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Adobe Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Dec–Feb) 0.9978 -0.2% In line with trend 18
FQ2 (Mar–May) 0.9968 -0.3% In line with trend 19
FQ3 (Jun–Aug) 0.9926 -0.7% In line with trend 18
FQ4 (Sep–Nov) 1.0052 +0.5% In line with trend 18

Spending and Revenue

ADBE Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 74 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.2176x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 1.7%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 74 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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