Nxp Semiconductors N.v. NXPI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 31 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-29

Nxp Semiconductors N.v.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.2B for the period ending 2026-03-29. The model projects $11.1B across the next four quarters (-12.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-29. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$11.1B
-12.1% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$17.50 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$-3.28 per $1
Training Fit
3.0% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $3.03B vs the actual $3.18B — an error of 4.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

NXPI Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2026
Period end 2026-03-29		 $3.03B $3.18B $2.83B–$3.22B +6.7% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-29		 $2.70B $2.43B–$2.97B -7.7%
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-29		 $2.73B $2.39B–$3.06B -14.0%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-29		 $2.93B $2.55B–$3.32B -12.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-29		 $2.74B $2.31B–$3.17B -14.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Nxp Semiconductors N.v.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9956 -0.4% In line with trend 6
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0023 +0.2% In line with trend 6
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0166 +1.7% In line with trend 7
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9772 -2.3% In line with trend 7

Spending and Revenue

NXPI Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 31 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.1361x • R&D elasticity: 0.74x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 31 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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