Analog Devices, Inc. ADI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 63 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-01

Analog Devices, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $4.0B for the period ending 2026-08-01. The model projects $17.5B across the next four quarters (+25.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 3.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-01. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$17.5B
+25.9% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.56x
SG&A Elasticity
1.28x
Training Fit
3.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $3.88B vs the actual $4.02B — an error of 3.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

ADI Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-08-01		 $3.88B $4.02B $3.58B–$4.20B +34.6% ✓ In range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-11-01		 $3.99B $3.57B–$4.47B +29.9%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-02-01		 $4.08B $3.55B–$4.68B +29.0%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-05-01		 $4.54B $3.87B–$5.32B +25.2%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-08-01		 $4.87B $4.07B–$5.81B +21.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Analog Devices, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Nov–Jan) 0.9585 -4.2% -4.2% below trend 15
FQ2 (Feb–Apr) 1.0101 +1.0% In line with trend 15
FQ3 (May–Jul) 1.0094 +0.9% In line with trend 15
FQ4 (Aug–Oct) 1.0033 +0.3% In line with trend 15

Spending and Revenue

ADI Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 63 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.6553x • R&D elasticity: 0.9665x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 63 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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