Dell Technologies Inc. DELL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 22 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-31

Dell Technologies Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $47.0B for the period ending 2026-07-31. The model projects $160B across the next four quarters (+5.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 24.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$159.7B
+5.6% YoY
R&D Elasticity
2.36x
SG&A Elasticity
0.13x
Training Fit
2.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $35.34B vs the actual $46.97B — an error of 24.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($47B) came in 25% above the spending-based forecast ($35B). This suggests that Dell Technologies Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

DELL Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-07-31		 $35.34B $46.97B $33.63B–$37.14B +18.7% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-10-31		 $36.34B $33.88B–$38.98B +34.6%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-31		 $33.35B $30.61B–$36.34B -0.1%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-04-30		 $54.82B $49.64B–$60.53B +25.0%
Q2 FY2028
Period end 2027-07-31		 $35.15B $31.47B–$39.28B -25.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Dell Technologies Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr) 0.9914 -0.9% In line with trend 5
FQ2 (May–Jul) 1.0171 +1.7% In line with trend 4
FQ3 (Aug–Oct) 0.992 -0.8% In line with trend 4
FQ4 (Nov–Jan) 1.0063 +0.6% In line with trend 4

Spending and Revenue

DELL Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 22 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.1014x • R&D elasticity: 0.8451x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 22 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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