Hubspot, Inc. HUBS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 52 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Hubspot, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $912M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $4.1B across the next four quarters (+18.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$4.09B
+18.5% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.14x
SG&A Elasticity
0.71x
Training Fit
1.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $919.4M vs the actual $911.7M — an error of 0.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

HUBS Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $919.4M $911.7M $891.6M–$948.0M +20.8% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $959.2M $918.4M–$1.00B +18.5%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $996.7M $945.1M–$1.05B +17.7%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.05B $982.8M–$1.11B +18.6%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $1.09B $1.02B–$1.16B +19.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Hubspot, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9984 -0.2% In line with trend 13
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9951 -0.5% In line with trend 12
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9944 -0.6% In line with trend 12
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0037 +0.4% In line with trend 13

Spending and Revenue

HUBS Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 52 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.876x • R&D elasticity: -0.1255x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 52 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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