Kla Corp KLAC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 68 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Kla Corp's latest quarterly revenue is $3.7B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $15.2B across the next four quarters (+12.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$15.2B
+12.1% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.13x
SG&A Elasticity
1.30x
Training Fit
5.9% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $3.50B vs the actual $3.66B — an error of 4.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

KLAC Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $3.50B $3.66B $2.77B–$4.43B +10.3% ✓ In range
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-09-30		 $3.55B $2.67B–$4.71B +10.6%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-31		 $3.88B $2.78B–$5.41B +17.6%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $3.87B $2.61B–$5.72B +13.2%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $3.93B $2.50B–$6.18B +7.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Kla Corp's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jul–Sep) 0.9991 -0.1% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Oct–Dec) 1.0018 +0.2% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Jan–Mar) 0.9861 -1.4% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Apr–Jun) 1.0325 +3.2% +3.2% above trend 16

Spending and Revenue

KLAC Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 68 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.282x • R&D elasticity: 1.7915x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -4.3%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 68 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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