Fortinet, Inc. FTNT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 65 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Fortinet, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $2.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $8.6B across the next four quarters (+14.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$8.58B
+14.0% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-1.42x
SG&A Elasticity
0.27x
Training Fit
2.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.90B vs the actual $2.05B — an error of 7.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

FTNT Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.90B $2.05B $1.78B–$2.02B +16.3% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.98B $1.82B–$2.16B +15.0%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $2.20B $1.98B–$2.45B +15.7%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $2.17B $1.92B–$2.45B +17.1%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $2.22B $1.94B–$2.55B +8.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Fortinet, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9735 -2.6% In line with trend 15
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0022 +0.2% In line with trend 15
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0108 +1.1% In line with trend 15
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.011 +1.1% In line with trend 15

Spending and Revenue

FTNT Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 65 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.7239x • R&D elasticity: -0.5375x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 65 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Technology

KEYS CSCO TXN ADSK TER GOOG VLTO CTSH