Hp inc. HPQ

Revenue Intelligence Report • 47 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-31

Hp inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $15.7B for the period ending 2026-07-31. The model projects $58.1B across the next four quarters (-1.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 8.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$58.1B
-1.7% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$6.06 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$2.91 per $1
Training Fit
3.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $14.33B vs the actual $15.68B — an error of 8.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

HPQ Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-07-31		 $14.33B $15.68B $13.18B–$15.48B +2.9% ✗ Outside range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-10-31		 $14.44B $12.81B–$16.06B -1.4%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-31		 $14.63B $12.64B–$16.62B +1.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-04-30		 $14.67B $12.37B–$16.97B +1.8%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-07-31		 $14.41B $11.84B–$16.98B -8.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Hp inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Nov–Jan) 0.9867 -1.3% In line with trend 11
FQ2 (Feb–Apr) 0.9781 -2.2% In line with trend 11
FQ3 (May–Jul) 0.9966 -0.3% In line with trend 10
FQ4 (Aug–Oct) 1.0283 +2.8% In line with trend 10

Spending and Revenue

HPQ Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 47 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.1538x • R&D elasticity: -0.131x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 47 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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