Qualcomm Inc/De QCOM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-28

Qualcomm Inc/De's latest quarterly revenue is $9.9B for the period ending 2026-06-28. The model projects $48.2B across the next four quarters (+9.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 10.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-28. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$48.2B
+9.5% YoY
R&D Elasticity
1.00x
SG&A Elasticity
1.55x
Training Fit
9.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $10.95B vs the actual $9.95B — an error of 10.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

QCOM Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-28		 $10.95B $9.95B $8.12B–$14.76B +5.6% ✓ In range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-28		 $11.85B $8.47B–$16.57B +5.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-28		 $12.31B $8.93B–$16.97B +0.5%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-28		 $12.37B $8.85B–$17.29B +16.7%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-28		 $11.71B $8.17B–$16.77B +17.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Qualcomm Inc/De's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Oct–Dec) 1.0528 +5.3% +5.3% above trend 18
FQ2 (Jan–Mar) 0.9455 -5.4% -5.4% below trend 18
FQ3 (Apr–Jun) 0.9744 -2.6% In line with trend 18
FQ4 (Jul–Sep) 1.011 +1.1% In line with trend 18

Spending and Revenue

QCOM Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.0304x • R&D elasticity: 1.1919x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 10.1%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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