Cintas Corporation CTAS
Revenue Intelligence Report • 50 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Cintas Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $12B, a +11.4% year-over-year change, based on 50 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($3.24 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 1.1% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Cintas Corporation's revenue with exceptional precision (1.1% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $3.24 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$11.9B
+11.4% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$3.24 per $1
Model Accuracy
1.1% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.8B vs the actual $2.8B — an error of 0.2%.
Note:
Cintas Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.8B | $2.8B | $2.8B – $2.8B | +11.7% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $2.9B | $2.8B – $2.9B | +11.6% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $2.9B | $2.9B – $3.0B | +12.5% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $3.0B | $2.9B – $3.1B | +11.0% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $3.1B | $3.0B – $3.2B | +10.5% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Cintas Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0039 | +0.4% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9933 | -0.7% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9956 | -0.4% | In line with trend | 15 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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