Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation CTSH
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $22B, a +4.6% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($2.86 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 1.5% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation's revenue with exceptional precision (1.5% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $2.86 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$22.1B
+4.6% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$2.86 per $1
Model Accuracy
1.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $5.4B vs the actual $5.3B — an error of 1.7%.
Note:
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $5.4B | $5.3B | $5.3B – $5.6B | +6.7% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $5.5B | $5.3B – $5.7B | +6.9% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $5.5B | $5.3B – $5.7B | +5.0% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $5.5B | $5.3B – $5.8B | +2.2% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $5.6B | $5.3B – $5.9B | +4.4% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0102 | +1.0% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9851 | -1.5% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9949 | -0.5% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0097 | +1.0% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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