Diamondback Energy, Inc. FANG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $5.6B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $20.7B across the next four quarters (+20.8% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 19.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$20.7B
+20.8% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$59.14 per $1
Training Fit
11.5% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $4.46B vs the actual $5.56B — an error of 19.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Diamondback Energy, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($5.6B) came in 20% above the spending-based forecast ($4.5B). This suggests that Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

FANG Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $4.46B $5.56B $3.96B–$4.96B +21.2% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $4.71B $4.01B–$5.42B +20.1%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $5.05B $4.19B–$5.91B +49.6%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $5.33B $4.34B–$6.33B +25.8%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $5.57B $4.45B–$6.68B +0.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9915 -0.8% In line with trend 9
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0097 +1.0% In line with trend 8
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9977 -0.2% In line with trend 8
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9563 -4.4% -4.4% below trend 8

Spending and Revenue

FANG Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 38 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.6148x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 38 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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