Conocophillips COP

Revenue Intelligence Report • 25 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Conocophillips's latest quarterly revenue is $18.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $53.2B across the next four quarters (-5.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 28.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$53.2B
-5.6% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.10x
Training Fit
8.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $12.97B vs the actual $18.09B — an error of 28.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Note: Conocophillips does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($18B) came in 28% above the spending-based forecast ($13B). This suggests that Conocophillips's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

COP Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $12.97B $18.09B $10.51B–$15.99B +2.7% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $12.96B $9.64B–$17.44B -2.8%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $13.41B $9.32B–$19.29B +17.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $13.37B $8.79B–$20.34B -1.0%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $13.42B $8.40B–$21.46B -25.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Conocophillips's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.037 +3.7% +3.7% above trend 6
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.976 -2.4% In line with trend 5
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9768 -2.3% In line with trend 5
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9994 -0.1% In line with trend 5

Spending and Revenue

COP Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 25 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.0695x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 25 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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