Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 65 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Marathon Petroleum Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $52.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $135B across the next four quarters (-12.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 34.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$134.8B
-12.2% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.37x
Training Fit
10.8% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $34.02B vs the actual $51.99B — an error of 34.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Marathon Petroleum Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($52B) came in 35% above the spending-based forecast ($34B). This suggests that Marathon Petroleum Corporation's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

MPC Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $34.02B $51.99B $25.58B–$45.25B +0.7% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $33.87B $22.63B–$50.69B -2.7%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $33.67B $20.54B–$55.16B +3.3%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $33.58B $18.99B–$59.40B -1.8%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $33.67B $17.80B–$63.69B -35.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Marathon Petroleum Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9575 -4.2% -4.2% below trend 16
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.1318 +13.2% +13.2% above trend 15
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9986 -0.1% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9563 -4.4% -4.4% below trend 16

Spending and Revenue

MPC Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 65 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.312x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 65 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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