What is EQT's forecasted revenue?

Eqt Corporation is forecasted to generate $7.33B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -23.1% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the EQT revenue forecast model?

The model has 19.3% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.4B versus the actual $1.8B.

Eqt Corporation EQT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 26 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Eqt Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $1.8B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $7.3B across the next four quarters (-23.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 31.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$7.33B

-23.1% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

-0.07x

Training Fit

19.3% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $2.37B vs the actual $1.81B — an error of 31.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Note: Eqt Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($1.8B) came in 31% below the spending-based forecast ($2.4B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$2.37B	$1.81B	$1.54B–$3.66B	-7.3%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$1.26B		$682.3M–$2.33B	-35.6%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$1.57B		$739.6M–$3.33B	-34.2%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$2.62B		$1.10B–$6.25B	-22.5%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$1.88B		$710.9M–$4.97B	+3.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Eqt Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.856	-14.4%	-14.4% below trend	6
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.8019	-19.8%	-19.8% below trend	5
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0614	+6.1%	+6.1% above trend	5
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.2608	+26.1%	+26.1% above trend	5

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 26 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.5846x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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