Occidental Petroleum Corp /De/ OXY

Revenue Intelligence Report • 30 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Occidental Petroleum Corp /De/'s latest quarterly revenue is $7.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $19.4B across the next four quarters (-7.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 20.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$19.4B
-7.3% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-5.11x
Training Fit
16.0% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $5.62B vs the actual $7.05B — an error of 20.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Note: Occidental Petroleum Corp /De/ does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($7.1B) came in 20% above the spending-based forecast ($5.6B). This suggests that Occidental Petroleum Corp /De/'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

OXY Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $5.62B $7.05B $2.99B–$10.57B +8.9% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $7.11B $3.48B–$14.53B +6.4%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.35B $606.5M–$2.99B -18.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $5.09B $2.24B–$11.57B -8.6%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $5.90B $2.37B–$14.67B -16.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Occidental Petroleum Corp /De/'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0857 +8.6% +8.6% above trend 8
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0003 +0.0% In line with trend 7
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0085 +0.8% In line with trend 7
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9099 -9.0% -9.0% below trend 7

Spending and Revenue

OXY Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 30 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 2.8282x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -20.3%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 30 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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