First Solar, Inc. FSLR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

First Solar, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $6.6B across the next four quarters (+22.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 30.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$6.57B
+22.2% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.66x
SG&A Elasticity
-0.00x
Training Fit
25.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.38B vs the actual $1.06B — an error of 30.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($1.1B) came in 31% below the spending-based forecast ($1.4B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

FSLR Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.38B $1.06B $677.9M–$2.82B +25.9% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.48B $715.4M–$3.06B -7.3%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.62B $765.2M–$3.43B -3.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.76B $770.9M–$4.00B +68.2%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $1.72B $779.0M–$3.78B +62.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture First Solar, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.8475 -15.2% -15.2% below trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9742 -2.6% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0674 +6.7% +6.7% above trend 16
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.223 +22.3% +22.3% above trend 16

Spending and Revenue

FSLR Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 66 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.2238x • R&D elasticity: 0.851x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 30.8%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 66 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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