Phillips 66 PSX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 62 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Phillips 66's latest quarterly revenue is $51.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $134B across the next four quarters (-12.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 34.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$133.8B
-12.1% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$3.30 per $1
Training Fit
11.5% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $33.46B vs the actual $51.00B — an error of 34.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Phillips 66 does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($51B) came in 34% above the spending-based forecast ($33B). This suggests that Phillips 66's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

PSX Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $33.46B $51.00B $25.43B–$41.49B +0.4% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $34.52B $23.17B–$45.88B +0.0%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $33.37B $19.46B–$47.28B -2.2%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $32.60B $16.54B–$48.66B +0.2%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $33.32B $15.36B–$51.27B -34.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Phillips 66's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9719 -2.8% In line with trend 15
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.1064 +10.6% +10.6% above trend 14
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9709 -2.9% In line with trend 14
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0203 +2.0% In line with trend 14

Spending and Revenue

PSX Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 62 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.2618x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 62 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Energy

FANG EQT FSLR NRG BKR CVX COP MPC