Chevron Corp CVX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 74 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Chevron Corp's latest quarterly revenue is $67.2B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $206B across the next four quarters (-1.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 23.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$206.0B
-1.3% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$38.42 per $1
Training Fit
9.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $51.14B vs the actual $67.20B — an error of 23.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Chevron Corp does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($67B) came in 24% above the spending-based forecast ($51B). This suggests that Chevron Corp's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

CVX Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $51.14B $67.20B $42.36B–$59.91B +15.2% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $52.54B $40.13B–$64.94B +9.1%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $50.61B $35.42B–$65.80B +10.5%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $50.15B $32.61B–$67.70B +5.5%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $52.69B $33.08B–$72.30B -21.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Chevron Corp's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9722 -2.8% In line with trend 18
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0781 +7.8% +7.8% above trend 17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0003 +0.0% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9836 -1.6% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

CVX Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 74 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.2786x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 74 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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