Fox Corporation FOXA
Revenue Intelligence Report • 25 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Fox Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $18B, a -3.5% year-over-year change, based on 25 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($7.99 per $1). The ARDL model has 5.4% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.4% MAPE), suggesting Fox Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $7.99 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$17.7B
-3.5% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$7.99 per $1
Model Accuracy
5.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $4.7B vs the actual $5.2B — an error of 9.7%.
Note:
Fox Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $4.7B | $5.2B | $4.2B – $5.1B | +31.3% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $4.0B | $3.4B – $4.6B | -20.9% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $4.1B | $3.3B – $4.9B | -6.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $5.3B | $4.4B – $6.2B | +41.2% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $4.3B | $3.3B – $5.3B | -16.3% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Fox Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.016 | +1.6% | In line with trend | 7 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0171 | +1.7% | In line with trend | 7 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9861 | -1.4% | In line with trend | 7 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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