What is ZM's forecasted revenue?

Zoom Communications, Inc. is forecasted to generate $4.04B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -19.1% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the ZM revenue forecast model?

The model has 5.6% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.1B versus the actual $1.3B.

Zoom Communications, Inc. ZM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 34 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-31

Zoom Communications, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.3B for the period ending 2026-07-31. The model projects $4.0B across the next four quarters (-19.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 13.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$4.04B

-19.1% YoY

R&D Elasticity

0.15x

SG&A Elasticity

1.21x

Training Fit

5.6% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $1.10B vs the actual $1.28B — an error of 13.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-07-31	$1.10B	$1.28B	$941.2M–$1.29B	-9.4%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2026-10-31	$1.04B		$832.4M–$1.30B	-15.3%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-01-31	$1.05B		$798.8M–$1.39B	-15.6%
Q1 FY2028 Period end 2027-04-30	$1.02B		$741.5M–$1.40B	-17.8%
Q2 FY2028 Period end 2027-07-31	$926.5M		$649.3M–$1.32B	-27.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Zoom Communications, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr)	1.0199	+2.0%	In line with trend	8
FQ2 (May–Jul)	1.0336	+3.4%	+3.4% above trend	7
FQ3 (Aug–Oct)	0.9345	-6.6%	-6.6% below trend	8
FQ4 (Nov–Jan)	0.9916	-0.8%	In line with trend	8

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 34 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.398x • R&D elasticity: -1.5695x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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