What is WBD's forecasted revenue?

Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. is forecasted to generate $38.1B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +5.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the WBD revenue forecast model?

The model has 4.8% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $9.5B versus the actual $8.7B.

Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. WBD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $8.7B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $38.1B across the next four quarters (+5.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 9.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$38.1B

+5.5% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$4.28 per $1

Training Fit

4.8% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $9.53B vs the actual $8.72B — an error of 9.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$9.53B	$8.72B	$9.08B–$9.98B	-2.9%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$9.29B		$8.66B–$9.93B	+2.8%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$9.40B		$8.62B–$10.18B	-0.6%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$9.53B		$8.63B–$10.43B	+7.1%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$9.89B		$8.88B–$10.89B	+13.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9982	-0.2%	In line with trend	17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0392	+3.9%	+3.9% above trend	17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9807	-1.9%	In line with trend	17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0077	+0.8%	In line with trend	17

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.1691x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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