Netflix Inc NFLX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Netflix Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $12.6B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $53.9B across the next four quarters (+11.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$53.9B
+11.4% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.04x
SG&A Elasticity
0.58x
Training Fit
1.9% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $12.50B vs the actual $12.56B — an error of 0.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

NFLX Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $12.50B $12.56B $11.89B–$13.14B +12.8% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $12.80B $11.93B–$13.74B +11.2%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $13.28B $12.18B–$14.48B +10.2%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $13.72B $12.41B–$15.16B +12.0%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $14.10B $12.61B–$15.77B +12.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Netflix Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0193 +1.9% In line with trend 18
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9842 -1.6% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9954 -0.5% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9955 -0.5% In line with trend 18

Spending and Revenue

NFLX Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.0789x • R&D elasticity: -0.1416x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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